Pour chaque match on estime les buts attendus depuis trois historiques indépendants — forme récente, moyennes de saison (domicile/extérieur) et confrontations directes (+ xG si dispo) — puis on régresse vers la base rate réalisée du duel. Le verdict est la confiance du modèle sur le côté Plus/Moins : Pronostic fort (≥70% + angles d'accord) ou Probable (≥60%). La colonne « value marché » reste un bonus secondaire (rare sur un marché efficace), pas le critère.
| Match | Pari buts | Cote | Book | Proba modèle | Consensus | Value marché | Accord | ¼-Kelly | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo v Athletico PR | Plus de 0.5 | — | 89.6% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| São Paulo v Athletico PR | Moins de 4.5 | — | 89.9% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Le Mans v Brest | Moins de 4.5 | — | 89.5% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Athletic Club v Avaí | Plus de 0.5 | 1.08 | Coolbet | 89.1% | 87.7% | +-5.3% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | Plus de 0.5 | 1.08 | Coolbet | 89.3% | 87.0% | +-6.1% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | Plus de 0.5 | 1.12 | Pinnacle | 89.4% | 85.7% | +-4.0% | 4/4 | 0.6% | Pronostic fort |
| Venezia v Lecce | Plus de 0.5 | 1.03 | 1xBet | 89.2% | 87.5% | +-9.9% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Udinese v Como | Plus de 0.5 | 1.02 | 1xBet | 88.5% | 88.8% | +-9.4% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Genoa v Napoli | Moins de 4.5 | 1.02 | 1xBet | 89.4% | 88.8% | +-9.4% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Moins de 4.5 | 1.19 | BetMGM | 89.1% | 80.6% | +-4.1% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Moins de 4.5 | 1.22 | FanDuel | 89.0% | 77.3% | +-5.6% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | Plus de 0.5 | — | 87.6% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Parma v Cagliari | Moins de 4.5 | 1.02 | 1xBet | 88.3% | 88.6% | +-9.7% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Paris Saint Germain v Rennes | Plus de 1.5 | — | 87.6% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Coritiba v Palmeiras | Moins de 4.5 | — | 87.2% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro | Moins de 4.5 | — | 87.1% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Juventude v Ceará | Plus de 0.5 | 1.09 | Coolbet | 86.3% | 87.1% | +-5.0% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | Plus de 0.5 | 1.11 | Coolbet | 86.2% | 85.5% | +-5.1% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Criciúma v São Bernardo | Plus de 0.5 | 1.08 | Coolbet | 87.0% | 85.9% | +-7.3% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Bologna v Lazio | Moins de 4.5 | 1.04 | 1xBet | 86.1% | 87.0% | +-9.5% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | Moins de 4.5 | 1.14 | 1xBet | 87.2% | 79.6% | +-9.2% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Angers SCO v LOSC Lille | Plus de 0.5 | — | 86.7% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | Moins de 4.5 | 1.20 | FanDuel | 87.0% | 78.3% | +-6.0% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Náutico v Goiás | Moins de 4.5 | 1.09 | Coolbet | 85.0% | 86.3% | +-5.9% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | Moins de 4.5 | 1.06 | Coolbet | 85.8% | 88.1% | +-6.6% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais | Plus de 1.5 | — | 86.1% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Olympique Marseille v Strasbourg | Plus de 1.5 | — | 84.4% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Botafogo v Santos | Plus de 1.5 | — | 83.2% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Juventude v Ceará | Moins de 3.5 | 1.19 | Coolbet | 83.6% | 78.9% | +-6.1% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | Moins de 3.5 | 1.16 | Coolbet | 83.6% | 81.1% | +-5.9% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | Moins de 3.5 | 1.24 | Coolbet | 83.7% | 75.1% | +-6.8% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Troyes v Paris | Moins de 4.5 | — | 83.8% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Angers SCO v LOSC Lille | Moins de 3.5 | — | 83.1% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Plus de 1.5 | 1.25 | Coral | 83.5% | 75.9% | +-5.1% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Criciúma v São Bernardo | Moins de 3.5 | 1.23 | Coolbet | 82.2% | 75.9% | +-6.7% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Atlético GO v Ponte Preta | Moins de 4.5 | 1.09 | Coolbet | 82.1% | 86.3% | +-5.9% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Botafogo SP v CRB | Moins de 4.5 | — | 82.3% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Plus de 1.5 | 1.25 | William Hill | 82.3% | 76.4% | +-4.4% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Moins de 4.5 | 1.12 | FanDuel | 82.7% | 85.0% | +-4.8% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Atlético Mineiro v Bahia | Plus de 1.5 | — | 81.4% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Atlético Mineiro v Bahia | Moins de 4.5 | — | 81.7% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | Moins de 3.5 | — | 81.2% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Atlético GO v Ponte Preta | Plus de 1.5 | 1.36 | Coolbet | 80.9% | 70.0% | +-4.8% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Botafogo SP v CRB | Plus de 1.5 | — | 80.9% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Botafogo v Santos | Moins de 4.5 | — | 79.5% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Udinese v Como | Moins de 3.5 | 1.21 | 1xBet | 79.5% | 76.2% | +-7.7% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Troyes v Paris | Plus de 1.5 | — | 79.5% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Moins de 4.5 | 1.14 | BetMGM | 80.5% | 83.0% | +-5.4% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus de 1.5 | 1.31 | BetMGM | 80.5% | 74.1% | +-3.0% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Moins de 4.5 | 1.13 | FanDuel | 79.1% | 83.2% | +-6.0% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Náutico v Goiás | Plus de 1.5 | 1.33 | Coolbet | 78.1% | 70.8% | +-5.9% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | Moins de 3.5 | 1.21 | Coolbet | 77.8% | 76.9% | +-6.9% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | Moins de 3.5 | 1.18 | Pinnacle | 77.6% | 79.6% | +-6.0% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Venezia v Lecce | Moins de 3.5 | 1.22 | 1xBet | 78.0% | 76.4% | +-6.8% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Olympique Marseille v Strasbourg | Moins de 4.5 | — | 77.9% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| São Paulo v Athletico PR | Moins de 3.5 | — | 76.9% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | Plus de 0.5 | 1.07 | Coolbet | 86.1% | 87.3% | +-6.6% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Bologna v Lazio | Plus de 1.5 | 1.36 | Pinnacle | 76.9% | 69.2% | +-5.9% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Le Mans v Brest | Moins de 3.5 | — | 76.4% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Coritiba v Palmeiras | Plus de 1.5 | — | 75.5% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro | Plus de 1.5 | — | 75.8% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | Plus de 1.5 | 1.19 | 1xBet | 75.6% | 78.1% | +-7.1% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais | Moins de 4.5 | — | 75.2% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | Plus de 1.5 | 1.17 | FanDuel | 75.9% | 80.5% | +-5.8% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Moins de 3.5 | 1.50 | Coral | 75.7% | 64.8% | +-2.8% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Moins de 3.5 | 1.62 | 1xBet | 75.6% | 60.3% | +-2.3% | 3/3 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Parma v Cagliari | Plus de 1.5 | 1.41 | 1xBet | 74.1% | 66.7% | +-5.9% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Parma v Cagliari | Moins de 3.5 | 1.18 | 1xBet | 74.5% | 77.9% | +-8.1% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Coritiba v Palmeiras | Moins de 3.5 | — | 72.8% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Plus de 1.5 | 1.22 | FanDuel | 73.0% | 78.4% | +-4.3% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Plus de 1.5 | 1.18 | Coral | 73.1% | 81.0% | +-4.4% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro | Moins de 3.5 | — | 72.6% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| São Paulo v Athletico PR | Plus de 1.5 | — | 71.8% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Genoa v Napoli | Plus de 1.5 | 1.35 | 1xBet | 72.5% | 68.5% | +-7.6% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | Moins de 3.5 | 1.44 | 1xBet | 72.7% | 65.2% | +-6.2% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Le Mans v Brest | Plus de 1.5 | — | 72.1% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | Moins de 3.5 | 1.56 | Pinnacle | 72.4% | 61.1% | +-4.7% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | Moins de 3.5 | 1.21 | Coolbet | 70.7% | 76.6% | +-7.3% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | Plus de 1.5 | 1.43 | Coolbet | 71.0% | 66.6% | +-4.7% | 4/4 | 1.7% | Pronostic fort |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | Plus de 1.5 | 1.50 | Coolbet | 71.1% | 63.9% | +-4.2% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Bologna v Lazio | Moins de 3.5 | 1.23 | 1xBet | 71.2% | 75.6% | +-7.0% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Athletic Club v Avaí | Plus de 1.5 | 1.43 | Coolbet | 70.5% | 67.1% | +-4.0% | 4/4 | 0.9% | Pronostic fort |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | Plus de 1.5 | 1.43 | Coolbet | 77.3% | 67.1% | +-4.1% | 3/4 | 2.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Athletic Club v Avaí | Moins de 3.5 | 1.22 | Pinnacle | 78.2% | 76.9% | +-6.2% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Genoa v Napoli | Moins de 3.5 | 1.20 | 1xBet | 76.1% | 77.0% | +-7.6% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Paris Saint Germain v Rennes | Moins de 4.5 | — | 72.6% | — | — | 2/3 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort | |
| Venezia v Lecce | Plus de 1.5 | 1.36 | 1xBet | 70.7% | 68.3% | +-7.1% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Pronostic fort |
| Náutico v Goiás | Moins de 3.5 | 1.29 | Coolbet | 69.6% | 73.3% | +-5.4% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Udinese v Como | Plus de 1.5 | 1.35 | 1xBet | 69.1% | 69.0% | +-6.9% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Troyes v Paris | Moins de 3.5 | — | 67.8% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Paris Saint Germain v Rennes | Plus de 2.5 | — | 67.9% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | Plus de 1.5 | — | 67.1% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Criciúma v São Bernardo | Plus de 1.5 | 1.41 | Coolbet | 65.9% | 66.6% | +-6.0% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Atlético GO v Ponte Preta | Moins de 3.5 | 1.27 | Coolbet | 65.5% | 73.8% | +-6.3% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Botafogo SP v CRB | Moins de 3.5 | — | 65.7% | — | — | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Moins de 3.5 | 1.37 | FanDuel | 66.4% | 70.3% | +-3.6% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Atlético Mineiro v Bahia | Moins de 3.5 | — | 64.9% | — | — | 4/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Juventude v Ceará | Moins de 2.5 | 1.57 | Coolbet | 64.5% | 59.7% | +-6.3% | 4/4 | 1.2% | Probable |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | Moins de 2.5 | 1.50 | Unibet | 64.6% | 62.4% | +-6.4% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | Moins de 2.5 | 1.76 | Unibet | 64.8% | 54.5% | +-4.1% | 3/4 | 2.0% | Probable |
| Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais | Plus de 2.5 | — | 65.2% | — | — | 2/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Angers SCO v LOSC Lille | Plus de 1.5 | — | 64.6% | — | — | 2/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Juventude v Ceará | Plus de 1.5 | 1.47 | Coolbet | 64.1% | 65.6% | +-3.5% | 4/4 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | Plus de 1.5 | 1.54 | Pinnacle | 64.2% | 61.5% | +-5.3% | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | Plus de 1.5 | 1.37 | Pinnacle | 64.0% | 68.5% | +-6.2% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Angers SCO v LOSC Lille | Moins de 2.5 | — | 63.9% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Moins de 3.5 | 1.40 | Pinnacle | 63.4% | 67.5% | +-5.5% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Botafogo v Santos | Moins de 3.5 | — | 62.1% | — | — | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Olympique Marseille v Strasbourg | Plus de 2.5 | — | 62.2% | — | — | 2/3 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Moins de 3.5 | 1.41 | FanDuel | 61.6% | 68.0% | +-4.2% | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | Moins de 2.5 | — | 61.3% | — | — | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Plus de 2.5 | 1.88 | 1xBet | 60.7% | 53.1% | +-0.2% | 4/4 | 2.0% | Probable |
| Botafogo v Santos | Plus de 2.5 | — | 60.3% | — | — | 3/4 | 0.0% | Probable | |
| Olympique Marseille v Strasbourg | Moins de 3.5 | — | 60.0% | — | — | 3/3 | 0.0% | Probable |
| Match | μ total | Base rate | σ angles | Angles (μ) | Reco buts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba v Palmeiras | 2.64 | 2.92 | 0.25 | season 2.3 · form 2.9 · xg 2.6 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro | 2.65 | 2.75 | 0.48 | season 2.6 · form 3.1 · xg 2.7 · h2h 1.8 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Atlético Mineiro v Bahia | 2.99 | 3.00 | 0.13 | season 3.1 · form 3.1 · xg 2.9 · h2h 2.8 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | 2.24 | 2.21 | 0.36 | season 2.2 · form 2.1 · xg 2.3 · h2h 3.0 | Moins de 3.5 |
| São Paulo v Athletico PR | 2.44 | 2.36 | 0.28 | season 2.4 · form 2.3 · xg 2.6 · h2h 3.0 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Botafogo v Santos | 3.12 | 3.07 | 0.48 | season 3.7 · form 3.2 · xg 2.6 · h2h 2.5 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Juventude v Ceará | 2.12 | 2.29 | 0.31 | season 1.6 · form 2.3 · xg 2.4 · h2h 2.0 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | 2.12 | 2.08 | 0.08 | season 2.1 · form 2.1 · xg 2.2 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Náutico v Goiás | 2.78 | 3.08 | 0.40 | season 2.2 · form 3.1 · xg 3.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Criciúma v São Bernardo | 2.18 | 1.75 | 0.37 | season 2.5 · form 1.8 · xg 2.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Atlético GO v Ponte Preta | 2.96 | 2.92 | 0.13 | season 2.9 · form 2.9 · xg 3.2 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | 2.11 | 1.71 | 0.86 | season 2.3 · form 1.9 · xg 2.8 · h2h 0.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | 2.73 | 2.88 | 0.67 | season 2.6 · form 3.3 · xg 2.9 · h2h 1.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Athletic Club v Avaí | 2.38 | 2.50 | 0.54 | season 2.3 · form 2.3 · xg 2.2 · h2h 3.5 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | 2.40 | 2.38 | 0.21 | season 2.5 · form 2.5 · xg 2.4 · h2h 2.0 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Botafogo SP v CRB | 2.95 | 2.93 | 0.53 | season 3.1 · form 2.8 · xg 2.7 · h2h 4.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | 2.41 | 2.36 | 0.18 | season 2.3 · form 2.3 · xg 2.7 · h2h 2.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Venezia v Lecce | 2.39 | 2.29 | 0.56 | season 2.1 · form 2.4 · xg 3.1 · h2h 1.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Udinese v Como | 2.32 | 2.13 | 0.33 | season 2.5 · form 2.3 · xg 2.6 · h2h 1.8 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Parma v Cagliari | 2.56 | 2.44 | 0.27 | season 2.5 · form 2.3 · xg 2.7 · h2h 3.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Genoa v Napoli | 2.48 | 2.44 | 0.66 | season 2.4 · form 2.0 · xg 2.4 · h2h 3.8 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Bologna v Lazio | 2.71 | 2.88 | 0.21 | season 2.7 · form 2.9 · xg 2.3 · h2h 2.8 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | 2.64 | 2.50 | 0.21 | season 2.8 · form 2.4 · xg 2.7 · h2h 3.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Troyes v Paris | 2.86 | 2.86 | 0.45 | form 3.0 · xg 2.9 · h2h 2.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Toulouse v Olympique Lyonnais | 3.36 | 3.50 | 0.68 | form 3.9 · xg 3.2 · h2h 2.3 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Paris Saint Germain v Rennes | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.58 | form 3.2 · xg 3.4 · h2h 4.5 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Olympique Marseille v Strasbourg | 3.21 | 3.13 | 0.42 | form 3.3 · xg 3.5 · h2h 2.5 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Le Mans v Brest | 2.47 | 2.42 | 0.18 | season 2.3 · form 2.4 · xg 2.7 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Angers SCO v LOSC Lille | 2.14 | 2.00 | 0.41 | form 2.2 · xg 2.5 · h2h 1.5 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | 2.65 | 2.31 | 0.48 | season 3.3 · form 2.4 · xg 2.7 · h2h 2.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | 3.06 | 3.29 | 0.52 | season 2.5 · form 3.2 · xg 3.2 · h2h 4.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | 2.93 | 3.08 | 0.16 | season 2.7 · form 3.1 · xg 3.0 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 3.14 | 3.44 | 0.31 | season 2.7 · form 3.5 · xg 3.1 · h2h 3.3 | Plus de 1.5 |
| Hull City v Manchester United | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.35 | season 2.1 · form 2.5 · xg 3.0 | Moins de 3.5 |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | 2.51 | 2.33 | 0.15 | season 2.6 · form 2.3 · xg 2.7 | Moins de 3.5 |
μ total = buts attendus combinés. Base rate = moyenne réalisée des buts du duel (régression). σ = dispersion entre angles (bas = accord). « Accord » = nb d'angles du même côté que le modèle. La plupart des marchés sont efficaces : la valeur de cette page est surtout la projection transparente + le rare spot où cote et triangulation s'alignent.
edge = cote × proba_vraie − 1. C'est le moteur principal.1/meilleure_cote de toutes les issues < 1 → profit garanti quel que soit le résultat. Rare et petit, mais sans risque.Mise = fraction de Kelly du capital : f = edge / (cote − 1), en ¼-Kelly par défaut, plafonné à 2% (la fraction passe à ½-Kelly seulement sur un segment prouvé par la CLV). Entre ton capital pour voir les mises concrètes :
Bankroll : € → mises calculées dans la colonne « Mise € » ci-dessous.
| Match | Marché | Profit | Comment (cote · book · mise) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus/Moins de buts | +0.16% | Plus de 0.5 @ 1.08 (Betfair, 93%) + Moins de 0.5 @ 13.80 (FanDuel, 7%) |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Plus/Moins de buts | +0.31% | Plus de 2.5 @ 1.81 (1xBet, 55%) + Moins de 2.5 @ 2.25 (Coral, 45%) |
| Pari | Cote | Book | Proba vraie | Edge | ¼-Kelly | Mise € | Réf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moins de 0.5 Ipswich Town v Sunderland · Plus/Moins de buts |
13.80 | FanDuel | 8.7% | +20.5% | 0.4% | — | consensus |
| X · Match nul Hull City v Manchester United · Résultat (1X2) |
4.80 | Coral | 22.1% | +6.2% | 0.4% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
| Plus de 4.5 Nottingham Forest v Leeds United · Plus/Moins de buts |
6.20 | FanDuel | 17.0% | +5.5% | 0.3% | — | consensus |
| X · Match nul Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur · Résultat (1X2) |
3.90 | FanDuel | 26.9% | +4.8% | 0.4% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
| Plus de 4.5 Hull City v Manchester United · Plus/Moins de buts |
5.40 | FanDuel | 19.4% | +4.8% | 0.3% | — | consensus |
| 1 · Hull City Hull City v Manchester United · Résultat (1X2) |
7.60 | Betfair | 13.8% | +4.6% | 0.2% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
| Moins de 1.5 Arsenal v Coventry City · Plus/Moins de buts |
5.50 | BetRivers | 19.0% | +4.5% | 0.3% | — | consensus |
| Moins de 1.5 Ipswich Town v Sunderland · Plus/Moins de buts |
4.00 | FanDuel | 25.9% | +3.5% | 0.3% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
| Moins de 2.5 Hull City v Manchester United · Plus/Moins de buts |
2.25 | Coral | 45.8% | +3.1% | 0.6% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
| 2 · América Mineiro Operário PR v América Mineiro · Résultat (1X2) |
4.85 | Betsson | 21.2% | +2.7% | 0.2% | — | consensus |
| 2 · Sassuolo Atalanta v Sassuolo · Résultat (1X2) |
6.14 | 1xBet | 16.7% | +2.6% | 0.1% | — | consensus |
| Non América Mineiro v Criciúma · Les deux marquent (BTTS) |
1.90 | Matchbook | 53.8% | +2.3% | 0.6% | — | consensus |
| 1 · Juventude Juventude v Ceará · Résultat (1X2) |
2.23 | Unibet (SE) | 45.8% | +2.1% | 0.4% | — | Pinnacle ✓ |
Réf. « Pinnacle ✓ » = fiable (book sharp). « consensus » = repli (moins fiable). Edge surligné si > +3%.
| Match | Type | Combinaison (dutching 2 books) | Zone clé | Coût | EV | Risque |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Plus 3.5 @ 2.52 (1xBet) + Moins 0.5 @ 19.50 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2,3} 51.1% | 2.23 | +9.1% | élevé | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus 3.5 @ 3.40 (Coral) + Moins 0.5 @ 13.80 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2,3} 61.6% | 2.73 | +4.7% | élevé | |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Plus 2.5 @ 1.62 (Betfair) + Moins 0.5 @ 19.50 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2} 30.0% | 1.50 | +4.7% | élevé | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus 2.5 @ 2.00 (Betfair) + Moins 0.5 @ 13.80 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2} 40.6% | 1.75 | +3.7% | élevé | |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | Plus 3.5 @ 4.29 (Pinnacle) + Moins 0.5 @ 8.50 (LiveScore Bet) | perte {1,2,3} 63.9% | 2.85 | +2.9% | élevé | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus 4.5 @ 6.75 (BetMGM) + Moins 1.5 @ 4.00 (FanDuel) | perte {2,3,4} 59.0% | 2.51 | +2.9% | élevé | |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Plus 2.5 @ 1.81 (1xBet) + Moins 0.5 @ 15.80 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2} 36.8% | 1.62 | +2.7% | élevé | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus 3.5 @ 3.40 (Coral) + Moins 1.5 @ 4.00 (FanDuel) | perte {2,3} 44.4% | 1.84 | +2.2% | élevé | |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Plus 2.5 @ 2.00 (Betfair) + Moins 1.5 @ 4.00 (FanDuel) | perte {2} 23.5% | 1.33 | +2.1% | élevé | |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Plus 2.5 @ 1.88 (1xBet) + Moins 0.5 @ 14.80 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2} 38.9% | 1.67 | +1.9% | élevé | |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Plus 4.5 @ 4.40 (FanDuel) + Moins 1.5 @ 5.50 (BetRivers) | perte {2,3,4} 58.3% | 2.44 | +1.8% | élevé | |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Plus 4.5 @ 5.40 (FanDuel) + Moins 1.5 @ 4.60 (BetRivers) | perte {2,3,4} 59.0% | 2.48 | +1.8% | élevé | |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Plus 4.5 @ 6.20 (FanDuel) + Moins 1.5 @ 4.20 (BetRivers) | perte {2,3,4} 59.4% | 2.50 | +1.6% | élevé | |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Plus 3.5 @ 2.84 (FanDuel) + Moins 0.5 @ 15.80 (FanDuel) | perte {1,2,3} 57.9% | 2.41 | +1.4% | élevé |
Middle (vert) = la ligne Under est au-dessus de l'Over → tu gagnes au moins une jambe + double dans la zone (risque faible). Barbell (rouge) = Under sous l'Over → tu perds les DEUX si le total tombe dans la zone (risque élevé). EV avec P(zone) du marché. Classé par EV ; la plupart sont −EV (marché efficace).
| Match | Double chance | Synthétique | Direct | Gain | Mises (dutching) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Coventry City | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 6.17 | 5.55 | +11.1% | 8.30 (1xBet, 74%) + 24.00 (Betfair, 26%) |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.46 | 1.36 | +7.4% | 3.10 (Coolbet, 47%) + 2.76 (Betfair, 53%) |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.46 | 1.37 | +6.6% | 3.10 (Betfair, 47%) + 2.76 (Betfair, 53%) |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 2.04 | 1.92 | +6.4% | 3.25 (Coolbet, 63%) + 5.50 (Smarkets, 37%) |
| Juventude v Ceará | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.44 | 1.36 | +5.7% | 2.23 (Unibet (SE), 64%) + 4.04 (Pinnacle, 36%) |
| Hull City v Manchester United | 1X — domicile ou nul | 2.94 | 2.80 | +5.1% | 7.60 (Betfair, 39%) + 4.80 (Coral, 61%) |
| Fortaleza v Sport Recife | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.28 | 1.22 | +4.8% | 2.03 (Pinnacle, 63%) + 3.45 (Unibet, 37%) |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.35 | 1.30 | +4.2% | 1.88 (Unibet, 72%) + 4.85 (Betsson, 28%) |
| Juventude v Ceará | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.80 | 1.73 | +4.1% | 3.25 (SportsBet, 55%) + 4.04 (Pinnacle, 45%) |
| Athletic Club v Avaí | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.37 | 1.32 | +4.1% | 2.08 (Unibet, 66%) + 4.05 (Nordic Bet, 34%) |
| Operário PR v América Mineiro | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 2.00 | 1.92 | +4.1% | 3.40 (Unibet, 59%) + 4.85 (Betsson, 41%) |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.59 | 1.53 | +4.0% | 2.69 (1xBet, 59%) + 3.90 (FanDuel, 41%) |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.58 | 1.53 | +3.6% | 3.90 (FanDuel, 41%) + 2.67 (1xBet, 59%) |
| Hull City v Manchester United | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.15 | 1.11 | +3.5% | 4.80 (Coral, 24%) + 1.51 (1xBet, 76%) |
| Cuiabá v Londrina | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.41 | 1.36 | +3.4% | 1.89 (Unibet, 74%) + 5.50 (Smarkets, 26%) |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.82 | 1.77 | +3.1% | 3.70 (FanDuel, 49%) + 3.60 (FanDuel, 51%) |
| Genoa v Napoli | 1X — domicile ou nul | 2.24 | 2.17 | +3.1% | 5.50 (Tipico, 41%) + 3.77 (1xBet, 59%) |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.13 | 1.10 | +3.1% | 1.19 (Betfair, 95%) + 24.00 (Betfair, 5%) |
| Udinese v Como | 1X — domicile ou nul | 2.10 | 2.04 | +2.9% | 4.80 (Tipico, 44%) + 3.73 (1xBet, 56%) |
| Náutico v Goiás | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.96 | 1.91 | +2.7% | 3.52 (Pinnacle, 56%) + 4.43 (Pinnacle, 44%) |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 2.60 | 2.53 | +2.6% | 4.50 (1xBet, 58%) + 6.14 (1xBet, 42%) |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.52 | 1.49 | +2.3% | 3.50 (Betfred (UK), 44%) + 2.70 (1xBet, 56%) |
| Náutico v Goiás | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.33 | 1.30 | +2.3% | 1.90 (Unibet, 70%) + 4.43 (Pinnacle, 30%) |
| Genoa v Napoli | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.34 | 1.31 | +2.2% | 5.50 (Tipico, 24%) + 1.77 (1xBet, 76%) |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.75 | 1.71 | +2.2% | 3.70 (FanDuel, 47%) + 3.31 (1xBet, 53%) |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.36 | 1.33 | +2.1% | 2.18 (1xBet, 62%) + 3.60 (FanDuel, 38%) |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.56 | 1.53 | +2.1% | 2.82 (1xBet, 55%) + 3.50 (Betfred (UK), 45%) |
| Arsenal v Coventry City | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.04 | 1.02 | +2.0% | 1.19 (Betfair, 87%) + 8.30 (1xBet, 13%) |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.41 | 1.38 | +1.9% | 2.27 (1xBet, 62%) + 3.70 (FanDuel, 38%) |
| Bologna v Lazio | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.83 | 1.80 | +1.9% | 3.50 (1xBet, 52%) + 3.85 (1xBet, 48%) |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.26 | 1.24 | +1.9% | 1.59 (1xBet, 79%) + 6.14 (1xBet, 21%) |
| Juventude v Ceará | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.32 | 1.30 | +1.7% | 2.23 (Unibet (SE), 59%) + 3.25 (SportsBet, 41%) |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.90 | 1.87 | +1.7% | 3.35 (Unibet, 57%) + 4.40 (LowVig.ag, 43%) |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.37 | 1.35 | +1.6% | 2.18 (1xBet, 63%) + 3.70 (FanDuel, 37%) |
| Hull City v Manchester United | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.26 | 1.24 | +1.6% | 7.60 (Betfair, 17%) + 1.51 (1xBet, 83%) |
| Bologna v Lazio | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.37 | 1.35 | +1.6% | 2.13 (1xBet, 64%) + 3.85 (1xBet, 36%) |
| Parma v Cagliari | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.46 | 1.44 | +1.6% | 2.73 (1xBet, 54%) + 3.15 (1xBet, 46%) |
| Udinese v Como | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.34 | 1.32 | +1.6% | 4.80 (Tipico, 28%) + 1.86 (1xBet, 72%) |
| Parma v Cagliari | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.43 | 1.41 | +1.5% | 2.73 (1xBet, 52%) + 3.01 (1xBet, 48%) |
| Venezia v Lecce | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.67 | 1.64 | +1.5% | 3.33 (1xBet, 50%) + 3.33 (1xBet, 50%) |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.34 | 1.32 | +1.5% | 2.69 (1xBet, 50%) + 2.67 (1xBet, 50%) |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.38 | 1.36 | +1.4% | 2.82 (1xBet, 49%) + 2.70 (1xBet, 51%) |
| América Mineiro v Criciúma | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.55 | 1.53 | +1.3% | 3.10 (Betfair, 50%) + 3.10 (Coolbet, 50%) |
| Atalanta v Sassuolo | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.17 | 1.16 | +1.3% | 1.59 (1xBet, 74%) + 4.50 (1xBet, 26%) |
| Parma v Cagliari | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.54 | 1.52 | +1.3% | 3.15 (1xBet, 49%) + 3.01 (1xBet, 51%) |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.35 | 1.33 | +1.2% | 2.27 (1xBet, 59%) + 3.31 (1xBet, 41%) |
| Genoa v Napoli | X2 — extérieur ou nul | 1.20 | 1.19 | +1.2% | 3.77 (1xBet, 32%) + 1.77 (1xBet, 68%) |
| Bologna v Lazio | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.32 | 1.31 | +1.1% | 2.13 (1xBet, 62%) + 3.50 (1xBet, 38%) |
| Venezia v Lecce | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.39 | 1.38 | +1.1% | 2.40 (1xBet, 58%) + 3.33 (1xBet, 42%) |
| Venezia v Lecce | 12 — pas de match nul | 1.39 | 1.38 | +1.1% | 2.40 (1xBet, 58%) + 3.33 (1xBet, 42%) |
| Novorizontino v Vila Nova | 1X — domicile ou nul | 1.23 | 1.22 | +1.0% | 1.95 (888sport, 63%) + 3.35 (Unibet, 37%) |
🔞 Aide à la décision, aucune garantie de gain. Joue de manière responsable.